An assessment of the performance of scenarios against historical global emissions for IPCC reports

Abstract Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess relevance of in light changing global circumstances compare them with long-term developments determine if they are still plausible, considering newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, RCP/SSP, were central scenario-based literature informing five Assessment Reports Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment cycle. Here we analyze historical trends carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion industry drivers between 1960 2017. We then emission series period 1990–2017/2018. The results show that quite consistent medium each series. As a result, can be regarded valid inputs past analyses impacts. Global CO2 1960–2018 (and 1990–2018) comprised six three) overall subperiods growth significantly higher lower than average. Historically, (in absolute numbers rate) tightly coupled energy indirectly GDP. generally followed medium-high pathway, captured by “middle-of-the-road” narratives earlier combinations “global-sustainability” most recent (SRES SSP-baselines). Historical non-OECD best “rapid-growth” “regional-competition” scenarios, while OECD close regional-sustainability global-sustainability scenarios. Areas where less well, renewable nuclear supply. fact actual development rapid-growth regions might implications greenhouse gas associated climatic change.